How Likely is That?

This learning sequence encourages students to develop their understanding of statistics and probability. Students design and conduct surveys, they organise, analyse, and present data and use it to make generalisations and draw conclusions about a population. They use mean, median and mode to summarise and analyse data.

Throughout this sequence students develop statistical terminology and statistical literacy; they develop an ability to read and interpret graphs and tables and make judgements about the reasonableness of arguments based on data. 

Students conduct chance experiments and describe the likelihood of each outcome using fractions, decimals, and percentages. They investigate and compare theoretical and experimental probability. 

The sequence has been written by teachers for teachers. It has been designed to provide students with rich, engaging learning experiences that address the Victorian Curriculum. The sequence consists of 4 flexible stages, including suggested learning intentions.

There is a strong focus within this sequence on supporting students to develop the four mathematical proficiencies set out in the curriculum: Understanding, Fluency, Problem Solving and Reasoning, as well as their capacity for critical and creative thinking.

Before you commence this sequence, it is recommended that students are familiar with:

• common terminology and vocabulary associated with statistics and probability
• using scaled instruments to measure and compare length, mass, capacity, and temperature
• using metric units of length, mass and capacity to measure, order and compare objects.

Students would also benefit from a basic understanding of two-dimensional and three-dimensional shapes.

You can find support for building students understanding of these concepts in the Mathematics Curriculum Companion. The following resources may also be useful:

• A short interactive resource where experimental probability is compared with theoretical probability (alternatively search: 'experimental probability spinner')
• This clip from ClickView explores the basics of probability using a deck of cards and coins. Students explore sample space, favourable outcomes, possible outcomes, theoretical probability, experimental probability and how to express probability using fractions, decimals, and percentages. Sign into ClickView using your department credentials.

The Mathematics Curriculum Companion provides teachers with content knowledge, suggested teaching, and learning ideas as well as links to other resources. Resources are organised by Mathematics strands and sub-strands and incorporate the proficiencies: understanding, fluency, problem solving and reasoning. The companion is an additional resource for planning how you might use the sequence in your school.

The sequence highlights opportunities to apply the High Impact Teaching Strategies (HITS), which are a component of the Victorian Teaching and Learning Model. 

Students should be able to understand and use the following concepts and terms by the end of the learning sequence:

You can find definitions of some of these terms in the Literacy Teaching Toolkit and the Mathematics Glossary from the Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority.

The Literacy in Mathematics section of the Literacy Teaching Toolkit provides several teaching strategies with worked examples demonstrating how teachers can use literacy to support student understanding of mathematical language. A further set of strategies demonstrate how teachers can develop students' literacy skills to support their mathematical problem solving.

Opportunities for formative and summative assessment are identified at different stages of the learning sequence. Look for this icon.

You may want to develop a rubric to assess students' progress. A range of Formative Assessment resources are available from the Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority. This includes a Guide to Formative Assessment Rubrics, a series of modules to support you to develop your own formative assessment rubrics, and sample rubrics across six curriculum areas that demonstrate how you can put formative assessment rubrics into practice in the classroom.

In developing a rubric, you may wish to co-construct assessment criteria with your students. Each stage of the sequence provides sample success criteria for students working at Level 7.

The Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority has published annotated work samples that provide teachers with examples of student learning achievement at multiple levels for each strand of the Mathematics curriculum.